Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to continue their growth in 2024, with projections indicating that approximately one in five new car sales globally and 11% of the U.S. market will be EVs, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Despite concerns over factors such as tight profit margins, volatile battery raw material prices, and the phaseout of incentives in certain countries, data shows that EV sales are still on the rise. Falling battery prices, EV-friendly policies, and increased sales in emerging markets are all contributing to this growth.
**Record 2023 EV Sales**
One of the key indicators of the positive trajectory of EV sales is the record sales seen in 2023. EV market share reached 18% last year, up from 14% in 2022. The majority of these sales (60%) were in China, with Europe following at 25% and the U.S. at 10%. Analysts believe that growth in other markets has the potential to further boost EV sales in the coming years.
**Automaker Electrification Targets**
Over 20 major automakers, representing 90% of global car sales in 2023, have set electrification targets according to the IEA. These targets, along with sufficient investment in battery manufacturing capacity, are expected to support the continued growth of EV sales. With stricter emissions regulations in many countries, analysts predict that by 2035, every other car sold globally could be an EV.
**Consensus on EV Market Share**
The IEA’s analysis aligns with the consensus of other analysts in predicting that EVs will continue to gain market share in 2024. Bloomberg has forecasted 1.9 million EV sales in the U.S. in 2024, accounting for 13% of the new-car market. Additionally, EVs already make up more than a third of the U.S. luxury vehicle market, as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in December 2023.
**Polarization in U.S. EV Adoption**
A study from 2023 found that EV adoption in the U.S. has become increasingly polarized by state. While EV sales are on the rise, the size of the gasoline fleet is also growing, which could potentially offset emissions reductions from EVs. This polarization highlights the need for continued efforts to promote EV adoption and address emissions from traditional gasoline vehicles.